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Greenhouse gas induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation, reductions in Sierra snow pack, and an increase in evapotranspiration, all of which imply a decline in surface water availability, and an increase in drought and stress on water resources. However, a recent study showed the importance of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming and an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like teleconnection in driving an increase in CA precipitation through the 21st century, particularly during winter (DJF). Here, we extend this prior work and show wetter (drier) CA conditions, based on several drought metrics, are associated with an El Niño (La Niña)-like SST pattern. Models that better simulate the observed ENSO-CA precipitation teleconnection also better simulate the ENSO-CA drought relationships, and yield negligible change in the risk of 21st century CA drought, primarily due to wetting during winter. Seasonally, however, CA drought risk is projected to increase during the non-winter months, particularly in the models that poorly simulate the observed teleconnection. Thus, future projections of CA drought are dependent on model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection. As opposed to focusing on adapting to less water, models that better simulate the teleconnection imply adaptation measures focused on smoothing seasonal differences for affected agricultural, terrestrial, and aquatic systems, as well as effectively capturing enhanced winter runoff.

 

Abstract. Evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) respond differentlyto ongoing changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. It isdifficult to partition ecosystem-scale evapotranspiration (ET) measurementsinto E and T, which makes it difficult to validate satellite data and landsurface models. Here, we review current progress in partitioning E and T andprovide a prospectus for how to improve theory and observations goingforward. Recent advancements in analytical techniques create newopportunities for partitioning E and T at the ecosystem scale, but theirassumptions have yet to be fully tested. For example, many approaches topartition E and T rely on the notion that plant canopy conductance andecosystem water use efficiency exhibit optimal responses to atmosphericvapor pressure deficit (D). We use observations from 240 eddy covariance fluxtowers to demonstrate that optimal ecosystem response to D is a reasonableassumption, in agreement with recent studies, but more analysis is necessaryto determine the conditions for which this assumption holds. Anothercritical assumption for many partitioning approaches is that ET can beapproximated as T during ideal transpiring conditions, which has beenchallenged by observational studies. We demonstrate that T can exceed 95 %of ET from certain ecosystems, but other ecosystems do not appear to reachthis value, which suggests that this assumption is ecosystem-dependent withimplications for partitioning. It is important to further improve approachesfor partitioning E and T, yet few multi-method comparisons have beenundertaken to date. Advances in our understanding of carbon–water couplingat the stomatal, leaf, and canopy level open new perspectives on how toquantify T via its strong coupling with photosynthesis. Photosynthesis can beconstrained at the ecosystem and global scales with emerging data sourcesincluding solar-induced fluorescence, carbonyl sulfide flux measurements,thermography, and more. Such comparisons would improve our mechanisticunderstanding of ecosystem water fluxes and provide the observationsnecessary to validate remote sensing algorithms and land surface models tounderstand the changing global water cycle.